a strong rebound of chinese economic growth in 2023
china’s gdp growth reached 3.0% in 2022，significantly below the potential growth rate. the negative output gap resulted from both external and internal pressures. for external factors，the sudden breakout of russia ukraine conflict，the seven federal funds rate hikes and the reversal of quantitative easing policy all played important roles. major internal factors included the repeated worsening of covid-19 pandemic，the contraction of domestic demand，the negative impact on the profit margins of industrial enterprises，and the weakening expectations of households and businesses.
due to sluggish economic growth，china's inflation rate was fairly moderate. the year-over-year (yoy) headline and core cpi growth was only 1.8% and 0.7% in december 2022，compared to us 6.4% and 5.7% in the same period. what china worried is unemployment pressure. although the overall urban survey unemployment rate was only 5.5% in december 2022，the sub-index for the 16-24 age group reached 16.7%.
the rise of the east and the decline of the west in 2023
in 2023，global economic growth faces a strong headwind. according to imf projections for january 2023，world economic growth will fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023，and growth in advanced economies will decline from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023. gdp growth in the us，eurozone and uk in 2023 will be 1.4%，0.7% and -0.6% respectively，all down from 2022. global aggregate demand will decline due to the contraction in collective monetary policy in the major developed economies. the evolution of the russian-ukrainian conflict will bring more uncertainties to the international geopolitical context and global commodity markets. more emerging and developing countries may experience financial crises as a result of large short-term capital outflows and substantial domestic currency depreciations.
